Parallel Universes

[Andy Wilson]

Have you ever wondered what a parallel universe might look like, a world with few, if any constraints imposed by the finiteness of fossil fuels or the ability of the global supply chain to survive economic meltdown or the failure of the global transport infrastructure? Or where climate change is of only academic interest?

Thanks to Govt Minister Simon Coveney and the agro-chemical industry, this parallel universe is now accessible to all:

http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/agri-foodindustry/foo...

In this other universe, inhabited by the Minister and presumably the rest of his government, there can be a vast increase in agricultural output in Ireland,  one achievable in just 8 years, in spite of the complete dependency of Irish agriculture on fossil fuels for production, on global supply chains for fertilisers and animal feeds and for delivering the products to distant markets, and on massive EU agriculture  subsidies (not to mention climatic stability)  to keep the whole enterprise afloat.

Truly wonderful stuff.

But it begs the question, are these people actually sane?

There are a few days left to respond to the call for submissions, which apparent was deliberately done late, and on a level that made it invisible to anyone outside of a select few in the know.

[Andy Wilson]

Richard,

Great letter and even better the FJ published it in full. You've been around a long time, possibly farmers do respect your opinion.

Yes when you see the word sustainability used in documents like Food Harvest 2020 to define modern agriculture you have to fear for the sanity of the authors. Two millions tonnes of animal feedstock imports per annum - that's sustainable? Or half a million tonnes of artificial fertiliser imports? And they want to increase production further? Truly Alice in Wonderland stuff.

I don't know why you couldn't access my document, I just check this link and it works fine. Maybe give it a bit of time to download.

http://www.sustainability.ie/perspectives.agriculture.1.0.pdf

I'd like to do a follow up to this document, to outline in more detail the likely stages of collapse that will occur in Irish agriculture. I see this as perhaps three discrete phases of culling of animal numbers (owing to inability to maintain  such numbers and also the more pressing need to feed the indigenous population.)  Although Ireland has a long history of  exports in the dairy and livestock sectors, for the last century and a half this was  only  possible because  of cheap grain imports into Ireland from North America and other places. These imports maintained  the calorific food requirements of the Irish population while permitting agriculture to orientate itself towards dairy and meat exports.

I don't know if you have come across William Cline's 'Global Warming and Agriculture'? Cline calculates that global agricultural output will fall as a consequence of climate change, even without any constraints imposed by the availability of oil, gas, fertilisers, fossil fuel dependent irrigation,  or the consequences of new crop diseases, soil degradation  or failing mechanisms of  global trade. He does factor in some losses in irrigation, but mainly looks at changing temperatures and precipitation. But when all the other constraints are factored in, the reduction in global food output will be truly catastrophic.

[Richard Auler]

Sorry I wasn't here for a good while and the system doesn't inform me by email ( I don't know why) However, I cannot open Andy's submission, so a working link would be great. For what its worth here is what I have submitted and further down a letter to Farmers Journal which was, against all expecations, published without editing.

To Whom it May Concern

I am unable to exactly ascertain when the Food Harvest 2020 report was actually published and when consultations for its contents took place. I found indications which point to 2010. As some of the quoted parameters have changed greatly since then, an update, based on present knowledge, information and figures, is overdue. The word 'sustainability' appears 34 times in the document and the word 'sustainable' 38 times. The use of those words has very little meaning without a definition of what sustainable and sustainability actually mean in general, and in the particular circumstances used in the report. The “growth” envisaged by the authors is to a large extent based on imported feedstuffs, shipped around the globe. For how long such transport is either affordable or acceptable from a climate change and environmental point of view is debatable and therefore uncertain. Not to mention that some of the producing countries are increasingly need those foodstuffs themselves. I just cannot fathom the rationale behind the thinking that judges it makes long-term sense to transport feedstuff over thousands of miles to Ireland, and then the animals or products thereof an another route for thousands of miles around the globe to their target markets, especially now that China and India have beenidentified as markets with greatest potential. While it might create short-term economic advantage to a few, it will certainly undermine Ireland's ability to comply with our international obligations regarding climate change and carbon emissions. Even more important it will certainly leave an environmental legacy behind for coming generations – the core aspect required in order for any definition of sustainable or sustainability to be acceptable or reasonable. If Ireland has a future as a food producer - and I firmly believe it has - we must change our approach away from mass production to producing QUALITY. All indications point to an increasing number of consumers who are concerned about where their food is coming from, how it is produced, what it's ecological foot print is, and last, but certainly not least, it's nutritional value. It is madness to, for example, to promote a dramatic increase in milk production to transform it then into Infant Formula to replace the best and most important food in one's life. It is profoundly unethical to equate the use of Infant Formula with progress, particularly in countries where balanced information is not freely accessible to all. We in Ireland now have obligations under EU law when developing plans, policies, strategies, developments, etc, to ensure that environmental considerations are an integral part of how they are devised, and that they are examined from the perspective of a strategic environment assessment and/or an environmental impact assessment, depending on the context of the plan, policy, strategy,development, etc. I cant't help but it now looks to me as if an attempt is being made to fulfill those obligations in terms of FoodHarvest 2020 as an afterthought, rather than an integral mechanism, and without proper consultation with ALL those who should have been involved from the very beginning. Strategic environment assessment should have been included at every step of FoodHarvest 2020's deliberations. Not to have done so makes the end product, FoodHarvest 2020, unfit for purpose.

Dear Editor, Food Harvest 2020 (FH 2020) raising its ugly head again makes it clearer and clearer that agriculture and food production in Ireland are right now at an important crossroad: We have, once and for all, to decide whether we are going for quality or quantity.  I don't know on what planet the authors of FH 2020 are living. Their belief in never-ending growth has no foundation in reality. Are they not aware of the fact that the resources which have fuelled our so-called economic growth to-date are limited and are heading towards depletion? To plan, or even suggest, that Ireland should increase its agricultural output by 30-50%, is absolute madness, especially as the additional feeds required must be imported. And where will we safely put the 30-50% more slurry?   Our very own troika -TEAGASC, IFA and Farmers Journal- seem to unquestioningly believe what's written in FH 2020 and predict markets based on very dodgy assumptions. While those markets might have looked promising in 2009, intervening events world-wide makes them look much less likely.  Irish agriculture is depending on export, there is no doubt. But for how long will it make sense to produce food and ship it around the globe? For how long will that be possible? There are 800 million consumers in mainland Europe. Those consumers are very concerned about where their food comes from, how it is produced and what environmental impact its production and transport have. Those customers are looking for QUALITY and are willing to pay for it. Ireland still has a clean and green image, so why are we not concentrating on what we can do best: grow grass, keep the breeds of cattle which utilise it best without additional feed and be honest in our marketing: Don't call it grass fed if it isn't. To endanger our priceless green and clean image with GMO's, not to mention the growing of GM crops, is economic suicide as far as food production in Ireland is concerned.

[Theresa]

Looks great Andy - I will read it in detail during the week - I hope.

I'm just dying to hear how Derek got on in work :)

[Andy Wilson]

Michael and Alex,

Thanks for the comments. I agree Michael, that just because farms are small and possibly pleasing on the eye doesn't mean they are in any way sustainable. The conversion ratio of inputs into something people can actually eat is pretty appalling!

On the ideas front, quite a few of the proposals in my document could be initiated, albeit perhaps only at a very localised level, without any state support at all, or with very small elements of funding obtained through Local Agenda 21 or Leader. Probably, these are the ones that the transition movement should focus on. For example, it would be entirely doable for the transition movement to establish a network of  agricultural test sites that could be carrying out important trialling work on grains or fruit and nut varieties, or nutrient harvesting from purpose-designed wetlands.

[Alex Duffy]

Hear hear, I second your comments Michael, I have as yet only skimmed it, but will get the time over the weekend to really study it. Thanks Andy.

[Michael Layden]

Hi Andy, finally got around to reading your submission, quite a document. Really good summary of historical agricultural development.

It is good to be reminded of the shear struggle supplying food has been for most of human history. Particularly the role of grain.

Looking at the national figures of calories supplied per person by our agricultural system and the usage (leakage) into Animal feeding of a large percentage of those calories makes it all grimly real.

The ratio of energy requirement in Calories by the Agricultural sectors and the food calories produced really makes one sick.

It's quite easy at times to convince oneselve that because farms in Ireland look smaller and prettier that somehow they are not as wasteful as the giant fields and feedlots of other countries.

We really are so far away from being sustainable, the suggestions you make are reasonable and wouldn't cost a lot and I think that what really is disturbing about the submission. It's when you see the relatively small steps we need to take now to give ourselves some hope that it really sinks in the incredible misallocation of resources in the farming sector. Even 100th of one percent of the CAP subsidy could probably do most of the research projects you're suggesting.

I wonder what their reaction will be, thanks for putting in the effort.

[Andy Wilson]

Hi Derek,

Thanks for the comments. Even if the Department of Agriculture buries my submission where it will never see the light of day, its good to know someone has read it and understands where we are heading.

You sound like a man with a mission!  Yeah sometimes we have to stop looking at the water and just jump in!

[Derek Banim]

Hi Andy

just finished reading Perspectives on agriculture ,its a fascinating document .There's enough work in there to keep us all busy.I have been thinking of quitting my stupid job for a good while now,tomorrow  i'm gonna do it and dive into the local economy head first sink or swim we need to change direction .

Thank you for putting in all that work,hope it becomes the new harvest 2020

[Andy Wilson]

Thanks Alex. Inside knowledge can be very helpful. Try this.

Perspectives on agriculture

Or if  that doesn't work, copy and paste this:

http://www.sustainability.ie/perspectives.agriculture.1.0.pdf

Some earlier articles on the same theme here:

http://www.sustainability.ie/articlesfoodsecurity.html

[Alex Duffy]

The address is missings it's : after the http.